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The calculation for Golden Cookie Probabilities is incorrect. You can't just divide by the sum of the numbers.

As an example, imagine that a SimpleCookie has only two rewards:

  • 100 Lucky
  • 50 Frenzy

According to the incorrect calculation method, Lucky appears 100/150 = 66% of the time, and Frenzy appears 50/150 = 33% of the time. However, let's analyze the possible scenarios:

  • 50% for the pool to only be Lucky
  • 50% chance for the pool to be (Lucky and Frenzy)
  • Lucky appears (0.5 * 1) + (0.5 * 0.5) = 75% of the time
  • Frenzy appears (0.5 * 0) + (0.5 * 0.5) = 25% of the time.

75% and 25% are correct, not 66% and 33%.

Red.Tide (talk) 00:32, April 13, 2018 (UTC)

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