Chance of getting Golden Sugar Lump is 3:1000, so almost a year.
That's the chance of adding the Golden Sugar Lump to the drawing pool. There is always a normal sugar lump in the pool, which brings us from 0.3% to 0.15%. Then you have at least a 10% chance of adding a bifurcated to the pool, and a 2% to add a caramelized to the pool. so your odds are much much worse than 3:1000. Best case scenario, your odds are .75:1000 or about 5:6667.